The State of COVID-19 in the United States since May
by I.W. Twain
Last night, I wondered how the United States has been dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic since May 1 and compared to some of the major developed countries. To summarize, the answer is terrifying.
I used two time-series datasets to answer my question; the coronavirus data set by Rami Krispin that anybody can download and explore if you know R, and testing data from The COVID Tracking Project.
Total Confirmed cases in the United States have risen at a steady rate since May 1
The blue line in the above graph is a trend line that helps make sense of a rise in the number of confirmed cases. Notice how the linear line fits the increase in the number of confirmed cases very well. Thus, since May 1 the growth in confirmed cases has been increasing steadily. As of July 6, the U.S. has the most number of confirmed cases than any other nation with 3.1 million.
An aggregate number of 3.1 million does not tell the complete story. Although the dramatic rise in testing can explain a part of the increase, states are still experiencing a massive outbreak because the number of people testing positive is accelerating faster than the rise in daily testing.
To understand the above point, consider the following. When the number of tests was scarce, health officials were limiting testing to health-care workers and patients requiring hospitalization.
Because healthcare workers and people requiring hospitalizations are more likely to get the virus, the percentage of tests coming back positive (positivity rate) was very high in early April. But as more testing is done, states and counties can test people with milder symptoms, and those with no symptoms. If one assumes that testing is reliable and health officials want to test everyone in the nation, then the positivity rate is a reasonable estimate of that country’s actual infection rate.
Charles Ornstein and Ash Ngu at ProPublica looked at the changes in the overall number of positive tests in each state from Memorial Day. In states such as New York, Illinois and Indiana, “testing has stayed about the same or increased while the share of positive tests had dropped.”
That is the pattern we want to see so that the U.S. maintains a test positivity of less than 5 percent. And we were at least seeing that pattern between May and June.
From May 1 to June 1, Daily Confirmed Cases dropped by 49% while testing rose by 40%
In the same ProPublica article, the increase in positive results in states including Arizona, Texas, Florida and California surpassed the increase in % of positive cases from Memorial Day to Tuesday. Unfortunately for the U.S., this was also trend it experienced from June 1 to July 6.
Between June 1 and July 6, Daily Confirmed Cases in the United States rose by 109%, outpacing new testing which had increased by just 26%
Although looking at public health policy at both state and local levels can help one better understand how the U.S. got here, questions about political choices are beyond this article’s scope.
How has the U.S. done compared to developed countries that have responded well to COVID-19?
The short answer — not very good. This time column by Ian Bremmer is the most recent article I could find regarding the best global responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Recency is vital to make useful comparisons with the latest data. I chose to look at 5 developed countries, New Zealand, South Korea, Germany, Canada, and Australia, given the list. I chose only 5 so that the line plots are not overcrowded. I show the trend in daily confirmed cases for all these nations from February to July to understand their recovery.
Despite the Spike in Cases during March and April, recovery for Canada and Germany since May has been steady.
Some argued that that the 2003 SARS outbreak in Canada helped the country respond quickly to the COVID-19 outbreak. Some have suggested that the most significant difference-maker for Canada was how Canada’s provinces were able to work together quarantine measures and closures from one region to the next. On the other hand, states in the U.S. had to compete with each other for medical equipment to protect healthcare workers. Germany as well had plenty of resources such as testing and ICU beds along with transparency to recover from the cruel months of March and April.
As of July 6, Canada has only 107,000 confirmed cases and only 8,749 deaths, while Germany has 199,000 confirmed cases and 9,125 deaths.
Although daily confirmed cases increased quickly, each country recovered within one month
Although New Zealand is no longer COVID-free, it responded swiftly and in an orderly manner. Thanks to immediate lockdown measures, tax reforms, and government salary reforms, over 88% of New Zealander’s said that they trust their government in handling the pandemic. The number of confirmed cases in all of New Zealand is just 1500 and only 22 death. South Korea’s and Australia’s quick and intelligent measures allowed them to recover quickly. The steps these two countries took are detailed here.
Compared to all these nations, the daily number of confirmed cases in the United States have continued to increase since the virus hit the states in mid-March. If you live in the U.S., the best thing you can do protect yourself and other around you is to wear a mask. Studies like this one, and interviews with these experts provide a boatload of evidence that masks are effective even if you do not have COVID-19. From an individual standpoint, that is the best way to take control of your health and life back.
If you think that wearing a mask is a radical idea because it infringes upon your civil liberties, then the radical is you. This is not just about you, but also the people who you are around in grocery stores. Please be safe, be smart, and do not be this guy.
